NASA and European space agencies announced that a recently discovered asteroid has a 1.2% chance of striking Earth in December 2032, marking the highest impact probability for any known asteroid of its size.
Why it matters: The asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, represents the first serious impact threat in decades, earning a rare level 3 rating on the Torino scale that measures asteroid hazards, prompting increased monitoring from astronomers worldwide.
Technical Details: Initial observations reveal an asteroid between 130-330 feet wide, approaching Earth at over 38,000 miles per hour. If it strikes, the impact could release energy equivalent to 8 megatons of TNT, potentially devastating a local region.
- Estimated size of 40-100 meters
- Impact speed of 17.32 kilometers per second
- Energy release of 8.09 megatons
David Rankin, Catalina Sky Survey engineer: “People should absolutely not worry about this yet. Impact probability is still very low, and the most likely outcome will be a close approaching rock that misses us.”
Risk Assessment: While astronomers emphasize that a miss remains the most likely outcome, the current probability requires careful attention:
- Level 3 Torino scale rating
- 1.2% chance of impact
- December 22, 2032 potential date
Monitoring Plans: Scientists will track the asteroid until February when it becomes too faint to observe, resuming observations in 2028 during its next close approach.
Looking Forward: Astronomers expect the impact probability to change significantly as more observations refine the asteroid’s trajectory, with most similar objects eventually being ruled out as threats.
